Extreme precipitation events are becoming less frequent but more intense over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Are shifting weather regimes the cause?

• DOI: 10.1002/asl.981
• Publication Date: 2020-05-11T10:04:56Z
• Authors: Thang M. Luong; Hari P. Dasari; Ibrahim Hoteit
• Keywords: Extratropical cyclone; Extreme Weather; Forcing (mathematics); Peninsula

Abstract This study analyses the connection between extreme rainfall events in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and synoptic‐scale weather patterns over Arabian Peninsula. Mean follows a decreasing trend; however, number of rainy days has increased. Interestingly, is becoming less frequent but shows an increased intensity. Here we utilize self‐organizing maps (SOMs) to identify most intense synoptic systems causing Jeddah region. Three main that cause heavy during cooler months (November–April) are identified, all reflect tropical‐extratropical interactions. Extreme early period (1979–1998) characterized by stronger tropical influence local precipitation patterns, while extratropical forcing higher amounts spotted late (1999–2018). Our results suggest recent decades, mechanism city shifted toward regime with influence.