Exposure of trees to drought‐induced die‐off is defined by a common climatic threshold across different vegetation types

• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1008
• Publication Date: 2014-03-06T06:26:43Z
• Authors: Patrick J. Mitchell; Anthony P. O'Grady; Keith R. Hayes; Elizabeth A. Pinkard
• Keywords: 0106 biological sciences; 13. Climate action; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences; 6. Clean water; Original Research

Increases in drought and temperature stress forest woodland ecosystems are thought to be responsible for the rise episodic mortality events observed globally. However, key climatic drivers common impacts of future extreme droughts on tree survival have not been evaluated. Here, we characterize associated with documented die-off across Australia using standardized indices represent dimensions a range vegetation types. We identify probabilistic threshold an increased risk all sites that examined. show occur when water deficits maximum temperatures high exist outside 98% intensity; this was evident at regardless type climate. The also coincided least one heat wave (three consecutive days above 90th percentile temperature), emphasizing pivotal role amplifying processes. joint intensity distributions were modeled each site describe co-occurrence both hot dry conditions evaluate shifts thresholds events. Under relatively moderate warming scenario, frequency capable inducing significant could increase from 1 24 years 15 by 2050, accompanied doubling occurrence waves. By defining commonalities die-off, strong interactive effect provide consistent approach assessing changes exposure