Past climatic refugia and landscape resistance explain spatial genetic structure in Oriental beech in the South Caucasus

• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9320
• Publication Date: 2022-09-21T05:36:22Z
• Authors: Katarzyna Sękiewicz; Irina Danelia; Vahid Farzaliyev; Hamid Gholizadeh; Grzegorz Iszkuło; Alireza Naqinezhad; Elias Ramezani; Peter A. Thomas; Dominik Tomaszewski; Łukasz Walas; Monika Dering
• Keywords: Environmental change; Species distribution

Abstract Predicting species‐level effects of climatic changes requires unraveling the factors affecting spatial genetic composition. However, disentangling relative contribution historical and contemporary drivers is challenging. By applying landscape genetics species distribution modeling, we investigated processes that shaped neutral structure Oriental beech ( Fagus orientalis ), aiming to assess potential risks involved due possible future in species. Using nuclear microsatellites, analyze 32 natural populations from Georgia Azerbaijan (South Caucasus). We found colonization history most important driver pattern. The detected west–east gradient differentiation corresponds strictly Colchis Hyrcanian glacial refugia. A significant signal associations environmental variables suggests distinct composition stands might also be structured by local climate. retains an overall high diversity; however, context projected habitat loss, its resources greatly impoverished. affected are populations, for which impoverishment may enhance their vulnerability change. Given adaptive range‐edge loss these ultimately affect specie's adaptation, thus stability resilience forest ecosystems Caucasus ecoregion. Our study first approximation involved, inducing far‐reaching conclusions about need maintaining a species' capacity cope with