Field tests of a general ectotherm niche model show how water can limit lizard activity and distribution

• DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1326
• Publication Date: 2018-08-07T05:52:48Z
• Authors: Michael R. Kearney; Suzanne L. Munns; Danae Moore; Matthew Malishev; C. Michael Bull
• Keywords: Ectotherm; Microclimate; Species distribution

Abstract Mechanistic forecasts of how species will respond to climate change are highly desired but difficult achieve. Because processes at different scales explicit in such models, careful assessments their predictive abilities can provide valuable insights that be relevant functionally similar species. However, there surprisingly few comprehensive field tests mechanistic niche models the literature. We applied a general, thermodynamically grounded modeling framework determine fundamental an extremely well‐studied herbivorous ectotherm, sleepy lizard Tiliqua rugosa . then compared model predictions with detailed long‐term observations included sub‐hourly data on microclimate, activity levels, home ranges, and body temperatures as well annual decadal patterns condition growth. Body temperature inferred from gridded climatic were within 10% empirically observed values explained >70% daytime across all lizards. some periods restriction by predicted desiccation level rather than temperature, metabolically driven requirements much lower potential time. Decadal trajectories growth could also values, variance being attributable whether individuals had access permanent water. Continent‐wide applications partly captured inland distribution limit, only after accounting for water limitations. Predicted changes habitat suitability under six scenarios generally positive species’ current range, varied strongly rainfall. Temperature is regarded major factor restrict abundance lizards other terrestrial ectotherms change. Yet our findings show more important constraining activity, requirements, limits ectotherms. Our results demonstrate feasibility first‐principles computation animals environmental data, providing coherent picture space