Assessing the relative vulnerabilities of Mid‐Atlantic freshwater wetlands to projected hydrologic changes

• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2561
• Publication Date: 2019-02-08T16:40:50Z
• Authors: Denice H. Wardrop; Anna T. Hamilton; Michael Q. Nassry; Jordan M. West; Aliana J. Britson
• Keywords: Temporal scales; Ecohydrology

Abstract Wetlands are known to provide a myriad of vital ecosystem functions and services, which may be under threat from changing climate. However, these effects not homogenous across functions, wetland types, ecoregions, or meso‐scale watersheds, making broad application the same management techniques inappropriate. Here, we present relative vulnerabilities framework, applicable range spatial temporal scales, assist in identifying effective robust strategies light climate change. We deconstruct vulnerability into dimensions exposure sensitivity/adaptive capacity, identify relevant measures as they pertain attributes extent plant community composition. As test populate it with data for three primary hydrogeomorphic types (riverine, slope, depression) seven small watersheds four ecoregions (Ridge Valley, Piedmont, Unglaciated Plateau, Glaciated Plateau) Susquehanna River watershed Pennsylvania. use generated SRES A2 emissions experiment MRI ‐ CGCM 2.3.2 model input Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model simulate future altered hydrologic conditions our expressed two metrics: % time groundwater levels occur upper 30 cm (rooting zone) during growing season, median difference between spring summer mean water levels. then examine scales at each components (exposure capacity) shows significant differences. Overall, find that differences persist very fine grain, exhibiting high variability even among individual given ecoregion. For scale, strong seasonal but weak annual resulting magnification dry‐down combined winter wet periods becoming wetter. Sensitivities/adaptive capacities show types. A comparison anticipated alterations change historical changes hydrology due anthropogenic disturbance indicates potential shifts patterns far beyond anything managers have experienced past.