Ecological niche models of biotic interactions predict increasing pest risk to olive cultivars with changing climate

• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3714
• Publication Date: 2021-08-17T03:36:25Z
• Authors: Uzma Ashraf; Muhammad Nawaz Ch...; A. Townsend Peterson
• Keywords: Environmental niche modelling

Abstract Simple, single‐species approaches in distributional ecology leave open questions of possible roles biotic interactions. We sought to understand impacts climate change on current and future potential distributions Olea europaea sensu lato (host) Bactrocera oleae (parasite) Europe, the Middle East, Africa (EMEA), taking into account interspecific used ecological niche modeling approaches: For interactions, an initial host model was incorporated calibration parasite model, as populations may respond presence other species. Absence olive fruits could reduce flight ability fly parasite, whereas make a site less suitable for olives. The improved by inclusion information; converse not true model. Our results anticipated significant reduction distribution europeae Europe under scenarios; contrast, climates appear more broadly favorable species, which poses new increasing risks cultivation Mediterranean region.