Prescribed fire placement matters more than increasing frequency and extent in a simulated Pacific Northwest landscape

• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4827
• Publication Date: 2024-04-12T08:24:25Z
• Authors: Alison L. Deak; Melissa S. Lucash; Michael R. Coughlan; Shelby Weiss; Lucas C. R. Silva
• Keywords: Fire regime; Fire ecology; Prescribed burn; Business as usual

Abstract Prescribed fire has been increasingly promoted to reduce wildfire risk and restore fire‐adapted ecosystems. Yet, the complexities of forest ecosystem dynamics in response disturbances, climate change, drought stress, combined with myriad social policy barriers, have inhibited widespread implementation. Using succession model LANDIS‐II, we investigated likely impacts increasing prescribed frequency extent on severity carbon storage at local landscape scales. Specifically, ask how much is required maintain wildfires under divergent change scenarios? We simulated four scenarios (no fire, business‐as‐usual, moderate increase, large increase) Siskiyou Mountains northwest California southwest Oregon. At site scale, fires lowered projected maintained approximately same level when reapplied a ~15‐year return interval for 50‐year simulations. Increased decreased likelihood aboveground combustion during events. However, did not decrease wildfire, even increases (up 10× current levels) were simulated. was most effective reducing scenario increased temperature precipitation sites north‐facing aspects slopes greater than 30°. Our findings suggest that placement matters more estimate effects alone would be sufficient promote sequestration regional scales Mountains. To improve feasibility, propose targeting areas high concern or value high‐severity contribute meeting mitigation adaptation goals. results support strategic targeted prioritization treatments increase pace scale restoration ecological importance, highlighting challenges using lower risk.