Past and projected future changes in snowpack and soil frost at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7666
• Publication Date: 2010-04-20T17:04:20Z
• Authors: John L. Campbell; Scott V. Ollinger; Gerald N. Flerchi...; Haley Wicklein; Katharine Hayhoe; Amey S. Bailey
• Keywords: Frost (temperature); Snowpack

Abstract Long‐term data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire show that air temperature has increased by about 1 °C over last half century. The warmer climate caused significant declines snow depth, water equivalent and cover duration. Paradoxically, it been suggested temperatures may result colder soils more soil frost, as warming leads to a reduction insulating during winter. one of longest records direct field measurements frost United States. Historical no long‐term trends maximum annual which is possibly confounded high interannual variability infrequency major events. As complement measurements, can be modelled reliably using knowledge physics energy transfer. We simulated freezing thawing year 2100 balance model driven statistically downscaled change projections three atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models under two emission scenarios. Results indicated changes depth only slight increase number freeze–thaw most important decline days with stemming concurrent snow‐covered days. This shortening frost‐covered period implications for forest ecosystem processes such tree phenology growth, hydrological flowpaths winter, biogeochemical soil. Published 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.