Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

• DOI: 10.1002/joc.6163
• Publication Date: 2019-05-17T09:39:42Z
• Authors: Fredolin Tangang; Jerasorn Santisir...; Liew Juneng; Ester Salimun; Jingxiang Chung; Supari Supari; Faye Cruz; Sheau Tieh Ngai; Thanh Ngo‐Duc; Patama Singhruck; Gemma Narisma; Jaruthat Santisir...; Waranyu Wongsaree; Kamphol Promjirap...; Yod Sukamongkol; Ratchanan Srisawa...; Damrongrit Setsir...; Tan Phan‐Van; Edvin Aldrian; Dodo Gunawan; Grigory Nikulin; Hongwei Yang
• Keywords: Representative Concentration Pathways; Ensemble average

Abstract This paper highlights detailed projected changes in rainfall over Thailand for the early (2011–2040), middle (2041–2070) and late (2071–2099) periods of 21st century under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 RCP 8.5 using high‐resolution multi‐model simulations Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Southeast Asia. The ensemble mean is calculated based on seven members consisting six general circulation models (GCMs) three regional climate (RCMs). Generally, precipitation agrees reasonably well with observations, best represented by Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) data, during historical period (1976–2005). However, inter‐model variations can be large among especially dry months (December to March) northern‐central‐eastern parts, throughout year southern parts Thailand. Similarly future projection periods, sign magnitude exist. means both RCPs show distinct contrast between generally wetter drier conditions, respectively. change as high 15% period, which varies depending sub‐region, season, scenario. In contrast, conditions are wet season (June September) country where reduction 10% some areas. individual much larger than means, exceeding 40% cases. These related circulations associated winter summer monsoons, weaken. (wetter) condition enhanced subsidence (rising motion).