Early warning products for severe weather events derived from operational medium-range ensemble forecasts

• DOI: 10.1002/met.1444
• Publication Date: 2014-02-12T12:59:22Z
• Authors: Mio Matsueda; Tetsuo Nakazawa
• Keywords: Early warning system; Ensemble forecasting; Lead time

Accurate predictions of severe weather events are important for the society, economy, and environment in regions affected by such events. In present study, development testing a suite prototype ensemble-based early warning products events, which now routinely available at http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html, reported. The based on operational medium-range ensemble forecasts from four leading global numerical centres: European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency, UK Office, National Centers Environmental Prediction USA. these products, forecast probability occurrence including heavy rainfall, strong surface winds, high/low temperatures, is defined each model's climatological probabilistic density function. Several case studies have demonstrated ability to successfully predict Russian heatwave 2010, 2010 Pakistan floods, Hurricane Sandy 2012. construction grand combining single-centre ensembles can improve skills up lead time +360 h. improvements more pronounced temperature precipitation. provides reliable than ensembles, particularly with respect wind speeds temperature, aiding advance detection help mitigate associated catastrophic damage, especially developing countries.