Towards an improved analysis of Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts

• DOI: 10.1002/met.1593
• Publication Date: 2016-12-14T11:56:58Z
• Authors: Michael A. Sharpe; Clare E. Bysouth; Matthew Trueman
• Keywords: Forecast verification; Visibility

Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) are a widely accepted international form of aviation forecast used for airport and flight planning procedures at all major airports; these forecasts contain probabilistic, deterministic temporal uncertainty terms which make verification challenging. In the present paper, each term is defined clearly within forecast, matching observations to as closely definitions allow. A novel multicategory reliability table approach devised measure performance; an analysis visibility component TAF demonstrate that this methodology performs well compared existing approaches in variety different test cases, chosen illustrate scenarios important correctly.