Response of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.3749
• Publication Date: 2020-01-17T13:10:20Z
• Authors: Jadwiga H. Richter; Neal Butchart; Yoshio Kawatani; Andrew C. Bushell; Laura Holt; Federico Serva; James Anstey; Isla R. Simpson; Scott Osprey; Kevin Hamilton; Peter Braesicke; Chiara Cagnazzo; Chih‐Chieh Chen; Rolando R. Garcia; Lesley J. Gray; Tobias Kerzenmacher; Francois Lott; Charles McLandress; Hiroaki Naoe; John Scinocca; Timothy N. Stockdale; Stefan Versick; Shingo Watanabe; Kohei Yoshida; Seiji Yukimoto
• Keywords: Quasi-biennial oscillation; Oscillation (cell signaling); Momentum (technical analysis)

Abstract We compare the response of Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to a warming climate in eleven atmosphere general circulation models that performed time‐slice simulations for present‐day, doubled, and quadrupled CO 2 climates. No consistency was found among QBO period response, with decreasing by 8 months some lengthening up 13 others doubled simulations. In simulations, reduction 14 models, whereas several tropical oscillation no longer resembled present‐day QBO, although it could still be identified deseasonalized zonal mean wind timeseries. contrast, all projected decrease amplitude warmer largest relative near 60 hPa. , multi‐model amplitudes decreased 36 51%, respectively. Across differences were most strongly related how gravity wave momentum flux entering stratosphere vertical residual velocity responded increases amounts. Likewise robust correlated across changes velocity, parametrized fluxes, degree resolved upward flux. argue uncertainty representation parameterized waves is likely cause spread QBO's change.