Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1223-x
• Publication Date: 2011-10-27T19:41:15Z
• Authors: Hiroyuki Murakami; Ryo Mizuta; Eiki Shindo
• Keywords: Oceanic basin

Uncertainties in projected future changes tropical cyclone (TC) activity are investigated using (2075–2099) ensemble projections of global warming under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Twelve experiments performed three different cumulus convection schemes and four assumptions for prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). All consistently project significant reductions hemispheric TC genesis numbers as well frequency occurrence (TCF) (TGF) western North Pacific, South Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean. TCF TGF to increase over central which is consistent with findings Li et al. (2010). Inter-experimental variations number caused mainly by differences large-scale dynamical parameters SST anomalies. Thermodynamic secondary importance number. These results imply that spatial patterns can cause substantial uncertainties at ocean-basin scales.