Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1769-x
• Publication Date: 2013-05-01T21:14:09Z
• Authors: Bin Wang; So-Young Yim; June-Yi Lee; Jian Liu; Kyung-Ja Ha
• Keywords: East Asian Monsoon; Subtropical ridge; Tropical monsoon climate

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in phase five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation model's performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset seven best models. The CMIP5 are more skillful than CMIP3 terms metrics. projections made selected multi-model mean suggest following end 21st century. (1) total (as well as land oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due increases Indian summer (5.0 East Asian (6.4 rainfall; Australian rainfall moderately 2.6 %/°C. "warm land-cool ocean" favors entire generation an east-west asymmetry sea level pressure field. On other hand, warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference ASM but reduces rainfall. combined effects explain differences between changes. (2) low-level tropical circulation weaken 2.3 atmospheric stabilization overrides effect increasing moisture convergence. Different from analysis, EA subtropical 4.4 (3) domain over area expand about 10 %. (4) spatial structures leading mode interannual variation not change appreciably ENSO-AAM relationship be enhanced.