Influence of Amazonian deforestation on the future evolution of regional surface fluxes, circulation, surface temperature and precipitation

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2203-8
• Publication Date: 2014-07-05T05:42:09Z
• Authors: Quentin Lejeune; Edouard L. Davin; Benoit P. Guillod; Sonia I. Seneviratne
• Keywords: Deforestation; Tipping point (physics)

The extent of the Amazon rainforest is projected to drastically decrease in future decades because land-use changes. Previous climate modelling studies have found that biogeophysical effects Amazonian deforestation will likely increase surface temperatures and reduce precipitation locally. However, magnitude these changes potential existence tipping points underlying relationships still highly uncertain. Using a regional model at resolution about 50 km over South American continent, we perform four ERA-interim-driven simulations with prescribed land cover maps corresponding present-day vegetation, two scenarios for twenty-first century, totally-deforested case. In response 2100, find an annual mean temperature $$0.5\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$ region rainfall 0.17 mm/day compared conditions. These estimates reach $$0.8\,^{\circ 0.22 total-deforestation We also compare our results those from 28 previous (regional global) experiments. show historical development models did not modify median estimate sensitivity deforestation, but led reduction its uncertainty. Our suggest alone are unlikely lead point evolution under conducted synthesis literature reveals this behaviour may be model-dependent, greenhouse gas-induced forcing biogeochemical feedbacks should taken into account fully assess region.