Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05617-4
• Publication Date: 2021-02-09T02:07:48Z
• Authors: Xuejia Wang; Deliang Chen; Guojin Pang; Xiaohua Gou; Meixue Yang
• Keywords: Climate extremes; Forcing (mathematics); Mean radiant temperature; Albedo (alchemy)

Abstract Despite the importance of Yellow River to China, climate change for middle reaches Basin (YRB) has been investigated far less than other regions. This work focuses on future changes in mean and extreme YRB near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), far-term (2081–2100) future, assesses these with respect reference period (1986–2005) using latest REgional MOdel (REMO) simulations, driven by three global models (GCMs) assuming historical [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 8.5] forcing scenarios, over CORDEX East Asia domain at 0.22° horizontal resolution. The results show that REMO reproduces state selected indices reasonably well, although some cold wet biases exist. Increases temperature are strongest winter, an average increase 5.6 °C under RCP 8.5. As expected, temperatures warmest day (TXx) coldest night (TNn) number frost days (FD) declines considerably. Changes FD depend elevation, which could be explained snow-albedo feedback. A substantial precipitation (34%) occurs winter 8.5 far-term. Interannual variability is projected increase, indicating a more events compared today. Future daily intensity maximum 5-day would consecutive dry decline highlight pronounced warming high altitudes intense rainfall cause increased flood risk YRB, if GHG emission pathway realized.