Evaluating the impact of climate change on extreme temperature and precipitation events over the Kashmir Himalaya

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05984-6
• Publication Date: 2021-10-04T21:42:13Z
• Authors: Shafkat Ahsan; M. Sultan Bhat; Akhtar Alam; Hakim Farooq; Hilal Ahmad Shiekh
• Keywords: Representative Concentration Pathways; Climate extremes; Mean radiant temperature

Abstract The frequency and severity of climatic extremes is expected to escalate in the future primarily because increasing greenhouse gas concentrations atmosphere. This study aims assess impact climate change on extreme temperature precipitation scenarios using indices Kashmir Himalaya. analysis has been carried out for twenty-first century under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) ClimPACT2. simulation reveals that region will get progressively warmer by increments 0.36–1.48 °C 0.65–1.07 mean maximum minimum temperatures respectively, during 2080s (2071–2100) relative 1980–2010 RCP8.5. annual likely decrease a 2.09–6.61% (2080s) seasonal distribution alter significantly with winter, spring, summer seasons marking reductions 9%, 5.7%, 1.7%, respectively results evaluation show significant trends warm temperature-based decreasing cold indices. Precipitation other hand weaker spatially incoherent general tendency towards dry regimes. projected may result large-scale adverse impacts environment ecological resource base