Future precipitation changes in three key sub-regions of East Asia: the roles of thermodynamics and dynamics

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06043-w
• Publication Date: 2021-11-28T17:02:20Z
• Authors: Jiao Li; Yang Zhao; Deliang Chen; Yanzhen Kang; Hui Wang
• Keywords: Forcing (mathematics)

Abstract Previous studies have projected an increase in future summer precipitation across East Asia (EA). This study investigates the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic components to changes three key sub-regions EA where maximum centers historical are located (the tropical region, China, Japan Korea sector), analyzes causes components. Outputs from 30 climate models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) used. From these, five best-performing for climatology selected. The precipitations over near- mid-term (2020–2069) long-term (2070–2095) then examined using multi-model ensemble mean selected (MMM05). projections were driven by four combined scenarios Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) forcing levels Representative Concentration (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). results show that under SSP5-8.5 greater than those other all sub-regions. After 2070s SSP5-8.5, a marked intensification is identified sub-regions, but with different rates increase. primarily attributed component, while component related circulation relatively weak. Further analysis indicates pattern dominated climatological upward motion, mediated moisture.