Modelling impacts of a salt and sugar tax on hypothetical intra-category food substitutions, BMI and environmental footprints in the UK population

• DOI: 10.1007/s00394-024-03452-5
• Publication Date: 2024-06-27T10:02:15Z
• Authors: Patricia Eustachi...; Rosemary Green; Sarah Nájera Espi...; Giulia Scarpa; Ria Saha; Pauline Scheelbeek
• Keywords: Added sugar

Abstract Purpose Taxes on unhealthy foods can help improve population health in the United Kingdom (UK), but effects of food substitutions resulting from these taxes are often unclear. We investigated potential impacts a salt and sugar tax hypothetical intra-category substitutions, cost, body-mass index (BMI), environmental footprints. Methods Purchase panel data Kantar (2017) were used to determine most popular high or within eight ‘salt-intensive’/‘sugar-intensive’ categories. Within categories, lower (≤ 1.5 g salt/100 product) 22.5 sugar/100 substitutes also identified. Hypothetical swaps between salt/sugar explored, focusing changes caloric intake BMI, UK population. Results The suggested largely like-for-like did not accrue an added overall cost consumers. reduced calorie by about 200 kcal/day lowered prevalence overweight obesity approximately 60–65% 40–45%. proposed led total reduction -2.7Mt greenhouse gases, ∼ -500.000 ha land, -0.5km 3 blue water, -12km scarcity weighted -12.000t phosphorus, nearly − 14.000t sulphur dioxide over one year for due reductions intake. Conclusion Food following could lead significant benefits environment, without necessarily major people’s expenditure familiar salty sugary snacks.