European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming

• DOI: 10.1007/s10113-022-01987-z
• Publication Date: 2022-10-21T12:05:56Z
• Authors: Piotr Olszewski; Marcin K. Dyderski; Łukasz Dylewski; Petr Bogusch; Christian Schmid-...; Toshko Ljubomirov; Dominique Zimmermann; Romain Le Divelec; Bogdan Wiśniowski; Lucyna Twerd; Tadeusz Pawlikowski; Maurizio Mei; Alexandra Florina...; Jakub Szczypek; Tim Sparks; Radosław Puchałka
• Keywords: 0106 biological sciences; 13. Climate action; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences

Abstract Climate change is an important driver of the spread apiary pests and honeybee predators. These impact on one economically most pollinators thus pose serious threats to functioning both natural ecosystems crops. We investigated predicted climate in periods 2040–2060 2060–2080 potential distribution European beewolf Philanthus triangulum , a specialized predator. modelled its using MaxEnt method based contemporary occurrence data bioclimatic variables. Our model had overall good performance (AUC = 0.864) threshold probability, assessed as point with highest sum sensitivity specificity, was at 0.533. Annual temperature range (69.5%), mean warmest quarter (12.4%), precipitation (7.9%) were principal variables significantly affecting beewolf. shifts within two scenarios (optimistic RPC4.5 pessimistic RCP8.5) three Global Circulation Models (HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-SM-LR). Both optimistic showed that will increase availability niches. Losses niches only affect small areas southern Europe. Most anticipated changes for period already have occurred 2040–2060. The expansion suggests abundance this species should be monitored.