Climate change impacts on winter chill in Mediterranean temperate fruit orchards

• DOI: 10.1007/s10113-022-02006-x
• Publication Date: 2022-12-10T03:02:47Z
• Authors: Eduardo Fernandez; Hajar Mojahid; Erica Fadón; Javier Rodrigo; David Ruiz; Jose A. Egea; Mehdi Ben Mimoun; Ossama Kodad; Adnane El Yaacoubi; Mohamed Ghrab; José Egea; Haïfa Benmoussa; Nadia Borgini; Olfa Elloumi; Eike Luedeling
• Keywords: Orchard; Frost (temperature); Mediterranean Basin

Abstract Temperate trees require low temperatures during winter and subsequent warm conditions in early spring to flower eventually bear fruit. Many parts of the Mediterranean region feature winters with sometimes marginal chill accumulation. To assess historic future agroclimatic for cultivating temperate (including almonds, pistachios, apricots, sweet cherries apples), we mapped throughout this important growing region. We used on-site weather records (1974–2020) calibrate a generator produced data scenarios. broaden our analysis, spatially interpolated whole basin. supplemented simulation outcomes by collecting expert knowledge (from farmers researchers) regarding observed climate change impacts on orchards as well risks concerns generated change. Results showed that northern African regions have experienced major losses, likely cause irregular delayed bloom highlighted experts. The same regions, together southern Europe, may lose up 30 Chill Portions 2050 under moderate warming scenario. For future, experts foresee increasing risk frost early-blooming cultivars, exacerbated bloom-related problems occurrence heat waves. Our results provide evidence orchards. Expert proved instrumental interpreting orienting adaptation strategies. present are useful orchard managers planning new plantings, researchers policy makers developing strategies adapt fruit