Dynamics of births and juvenile recruitment in Mara–Serengeti ungulates in relation to climatic and land use changes

• DOI: 10.1007/s10144-010-0223-8
• Publication Date: 2010-06-29T03:28:32Z
• Authors: Joseph O. Ogutu; Hans‐Peter Piepho; Holly T. Dublin; Nina Bhola; Robin S. Reid
• Keywords: Ungulate; Carnivore; Guild

Abstract Natality and recruitment govern animal population dynamics, but their responses to fluctuating resources, competition, predation, shifting habitat conditions, density feedback diseases are poorly understood. To understand the influences of climatic land use changes on we monitored monthly in births juvenile seven ungulate species for 15 years (1989–2003) Masai Mara Reserve Kenya. Recruitment rates declined all giraffe, likely due alteration increasing vulnerability animals associated with recurrent severe droughts, rising temperatures, unprecedentedly strong prolonged El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, expansion settlements, cultivation human growth pastoral ranches adjoining reserve. Birth rate showed humped relationships moving averages rainfall, whereas responded strongly cumulative past rainfall. Increasing livestock incursions into reserve depressed quarter‐grown topi. Expansion settlements birth impala, zebra giraffe. Frequent ENSO‐related droughts caused progressive desiccation hence nutritional shortfalls ungulates. The climatic, resource did not reflect body size, migratory or resident lifestyle, dietary guild, digestive physiology degree synchrony breeding species.