The effect of density stratification on the prediction of global storm surges

• DOI: 10.1007/s10236-016-1003-6
• Publication Date: 2016-10-06T00:47:41Z
• Authors: Tsubasa Kodaira; Keith R. Thompson; Natacha B. Bernier
• Keywords: Tide gauge; Hindcast; Storm Surge; Stratification (seeds)

With the long-term goal of developing an operational forecast system for total water level, we conduct a hindcast study global storm surges Fall 2014 using baroclinic ocean model based on NEMO framework. The has 19 vertical levels, horizontal resolution 1/12°, and is forced by hourly forecasts atmospheric wind air pressure. Our first objective to evaluate model's ability predict sea levels recorded array 257 tide gauges. It shown that can provide reasonable predictions whole test period at gauges with relatively large tidal residuals (i.e., where standard deviation observed after removal tide, exceeds 5 cm). second quantify effect density stratification prediction surges. found inclusion increases overall predictive skill almost all increase in instantaneous peak surge smaller. location which largest (east coast South Africa) discussed detail physical reasons improvement are given.