Modelling the spread and control of Xylella fastidiosa in the early stages of invasion in Apulia, Italy

• DOI: 10.1007/s10530-017-1393-5
• Publication Date: 2017-02-21T13:47:16Z
• Authors: Steven M. White; James M. Bullock; Danny A. P. Hooftman; Daniel S. Chapman
• Keywords: Xylella fastidiosa; Mediterranean Basin

Xylella fastidiosa is an important plant pathogen that attacks several plants of economic importance. Once restricted to the Americas, bacterium, which causes olive quick decline syndrome, was discovered near Lecce, Italy in 2013. Since initial outbreak, it has invaded 23,000 ha olives Apulian Region, southern Italy, and great concern throughout Mediterranean basin. Therefore, predicting its spread estimating efficacy control are utmost As data on this invasive infectious disease poor, we have developed a spatially-explicit simulation model for X. provide guidance early stages invasion inform management strategies. The qualitatively quantitatively predicts patterns spread. We zones currently employed Apulia, showing increasing buffer widths decrease infection risk beyond zone, but may not halt completely due stochastic long-distance jumps caused by vector dispersal. practices should aim reduce find optimal scenarios minimise effort while reducing maximally-suggesting zone be favoured over surveillance efforts as budgets increase. Our highlights importance non-olive hosts increase rate lead order magnitude risk. Many aspects remain uncertain hinder forecasting; recommend future studies investigating quantification growth rate, short long distance