Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x
• Publication Date: 2017-08-09T09:31:35Z
• Authors: Jianhong E. Mu; Benjamin M. Sleeter; John T. Abatzoglou; John M. Antle
• Keywords: Agricultural land

We examine the impacts of climate on net returns from crop and livestock production resulting impact land-use change across contiguous USA. first estimate an econometric model to project effects weather fluctuations then use a semi-reduced form share study agricultural changes under future socio-economic scenarios. Estimation results show that are more sensitive thermal less moisture variability than returns; other land uses substitute cropland when 30-year averaged degree-days or precipitation not beneficial for production. Under scenarios, we both increasing, but with increasing at higher rate; increases declines marginal pastureland by end twenty-first century. Projections also substantially different larger variation is evident scenarios incorporated into analysis.