Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and CO2 emissions

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03229-3
• Publication Date: 2021-10-11T10:05:01Z
• Authors: Alessio Mastrucci; Bas van Ruijven; Edward Byers; Miguel Poblete-Ca...; Shonali Pachauri
• Keywords: Stock (firearms); energy demand; Heating degree day

Abstract Buildings account for 36% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution building stock its is critical support mitigation strategies. However, most studies lack granularity overlook heterogeneity in sector, limiting evaluation transformation scenarios. We develop residential scenarios along shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 assess stock, demand, CO 2 emissions space heating cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up turnover, discrete choice efficiency decisions, accounts geographical contexts, socio-economics, buildings characteristics. Global projected decrease between 34.4 (SSP3) 52.5% (SSP1) by 2050 under improvements electrification. Space starkly rises developing countries, increasing globally 58.2 85.2% 2050. Scenarios substantially differ uptake efficient new construction renovations, generally higher single-family homes, patterns across income levels locations, south driven medium- high-income urban households. This study contributes advancement sector knowledge be assessed integration other sources context change sustainable development.