Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03495-3
• Publication Date: 2023-02-10T16:05:17Z
• Authors: Binod Pokharel; Shankar Sharma; Jacob Stuivenvolt...; Shih-Yu Simon Wang; Matthew LaPlante; Robert R. Gillies; Sujan Khanal; Michael Wehner; Alan Rhoades; Kalpana Hamal; Benjamin Hatchett; Wan-Yu Liu; Sarbajit Mukherjee; Deepak Aryal
• Keywords: 550; Drought; 0207 environmental engineering; 02 engineering and technology; Active fire points; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Action; SPEI; Nepal; Prediction model; Earth Sciences; Climate change; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions

In spring 2021, Nepal underwent a record wildfire season in which active fires were detected at a rate 10 times greater than the 2002–2020 average. Prior to these major wildfire events, the country experienced a prolonged precipitation deficit and extreme drought during the post-monsoon period (starting in October 2020). An analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that both climate variability and climate change-induced severe drought conditions were at play. Further analysis of climate model outputs suggests the likely reoccurrence of drought conditions, thus favoring active wildfire seasons in Nepal throughout the twenty-first century. While the inter-model uncertainty is large and direct modeling of wildfire spread and suppression has not been completed, the demonstrated relationship between a drought index (the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index) and subsequent fire activity may offer actionable opportunities for forest managers to employ the monitoring and projection of climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales to inform their management strategies for Nepal’s wildlands.