Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires

550 Drought 0207 environmental engineering 02 engineering and technology Active fire points Atmospheric Sciences Climate Action SPEI Nepal Prediction model Earth Sciences Climate change Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03495-3 Publication Date: 2023-02-10T16:05:17Z
ABSTRACT
In spring 2021, Nepal underwent a record wildfire season in which active fires were detected at a rate 10 times greater than the 2002–2020 average. Prior to these major wildfire events, the country experienced a prolonged precipitation deficit and extreme drought during the post-monsoon period (starting in October 2020). An analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that both climate variability and climate change-induced severe drought conditions were at play. Further analysis of climate model outputs suggests the likely reoccurrence of drought conditions, thus favoring active wildfire seasons in Nepal throughout the twenty-first century. While the inter-model uncertainty is large and direct modeling of wildfire spread and suppression has not been completed, the demonstrated relationship between a drought index (the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index) and subsequent fire activity may offer actionable opportunities for forest managers to employ the monitoring and projection of climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales to inform their management strategies for Nepal’s wildlands.
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