A stakeholder-guided marine heatwave hazard index for fisheries and aquaculture

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03684-8
• Publication Date: 2024-02-06T07:02:00Z
• Authors: Jules B. Kajtar; Neil J. Holbrook; Anna Lyth; Alistair J. Hobday; Craig N. Mundy; Sarah C. Ugalde
• Keywords: Marine heatwaves; aquaculture; fisheries; hazards; 01 natural sciences; CMIP6; stakeholders; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract Marine heatwaves pose an increasing threat to fisheries and aquaculture around the world under climate change. However, has not been estimated for coming decades in a form that meets needs of these industries. Tasmanian southeast Australia have severely impacted by marine recent years, especially oyster, abalone, salmon In series semi-structured interviews with key fishery stakeholders, information was gathered about following: (i) impacts they experienced date from heatwaves, (ii) their planning future (iii) would be most useful aid planning. Using CMIP6 historical simulations sea surface temperatures Tasmania, we developed heatwave hazard index guided stakeholder conversations. The region severe during austral summer 2015/16, which used here as reference point define index. Our shows conditions like those 2015/16 are projected occur approximately 1-in-5 years 2050s low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) or 1-in-2 high (SSP5-8.5). Increased frequency will likely reduce productivity both direct (mortality) in-direct (ecosystem change, greater incidence disease) on target species. illustrative is one step towards risk index, also need consider aspects exposure vulnerability utility stakeholders.