Prediction on transaction amounts of China’s CBEC with improved GM (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority

• DOI: 10.1007/s10660-020-09434-z
• Publication Date: 2020-10-28T14:03:04Z
• Authors: Chuanmin Mi; Yijing Wang; Lin Xiao
• Keywords: Research Object

Benefited by e-commerce activities and information technology development, cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) has experienced rapid growth and attracted much research attention. This study takes China’s CBEC as a typical research object and intends to forecast its future development trend based on an exploration of its dynamic changing rules as a whole. The data set of transaction amounts of China’s CBEC from 2008 to 2018 was used in the modeling processes of improved grey models (GM) (1,1) proposed in this study, after which forecast results on the development of China’s CBEC from 2019 to 2020 were achieved. The experimental results reveal that, introducing the principle of new information priority to the improvement of grey models indeed works when forecasting a newly-emerging and vulnerable system like CBEC. Finally, it is predicted that China’s CBEC promises to continue to grow in the near future.