Shorter blooms expected with longer warm periods under climate change: an example from a shallow meso-eutrophic Mediterranean lake

• DOI: 10.1007/s10750-021-04773-w
• Publication Date: 2022-01-09T00:03:33Z
• Authors: Gary Free; Mariano Bresciani; Monica Pinardi; Steef Peters; Marnix Laanen; Rosalba Padula; Alessandra Cingolani; Fedra Charavgis; Claudia Giardino
• Keywords: Bloom; Seasonality; Spring bloom

Abstract Satellite data from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) lakes project were used to examine influence of climate on chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). Nonparametric multiplicative regression and machine learning explain Chl-a concentration trend dynamics. The main parameters importance seasonality, interannual variation, lake level, water temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation, antecedent rainfall. No evidence was found for an earlier onset summer phytoplankton bloom related warmer temperatures. Instead, a curvilinear relationship between temperature length season above 20°C (LOS) with longer periods leading blooms shorter duration. We suggest that period temperatures in may result uptake nutrients or increased calcite precipitation resulting shortening duration blooms. current scenario increasing LOS change lead alteration phenological cycles where become limiting. Satellite-derived information proved essential detecting trends at appropriate resolution over time.