Forest management scenarios drive future dynamics of Mediterranean planted pine forests under climate change

• DOI: 10.1007/s10980-023-01678-y
• Publication Date: 2023-05-29T11:01:43Z
• Authors: M. Suárez-Muñoz; F. J. Bonet-García; R. Navarro-Cerrillo; J. Herrero; M. Mina
• Keywords: Forest dynamics; Climate change scenario

Abstract Context Planted pine forests are highly abundant communities in the Mediterranean Basin. Being result of past reforestation, these show high species and structural homogeneity. Diversification to conifer-broadleaved mixed is recommended promote adaptation climate change increase their resilience perturbations. Objectives This study aims at evaluating how planted will develop future as a combined impacts management climate. Methods We applied forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) simulate different scenarios strategies designed cooperation with managers assess effects on performance terms composition. Results Climate caused shift phenological growth pattern by reducing during summer increasing photosynthetic productivity spring fall, particularly under emission scenarios. Biomass increased through time more strongly change, but this differs among species, resulting changes types across landscape. Our results portray natural succession main driver intensive accelerated process limiting promoting oak species. Conclusions highlight importance active favour climate-adapted ecosystems shorter scales than offered alone. Moreover, our spatially explicit modelling approach helps identify areas where lack seed dispersal and/or competitive exclusion prevent diversification, providing useful recommendations for interventions. However, has some limitations since it does not consider disturbances. Graphical abstract