High-resolution species distribution modelling reveals spatio-temporal variability of habitat suitability in a declining grassland bird

• DOI: 10.1007/s10980-024-01848-6
• Publication Date: 2024-02-19T12:02:28Z
• Authors: Tiago Crispim-Mendes; Francesco Valerio; Ana Teresa Marques; Ricardo Pita; Sérgio Godinho; João Paulo Silva
• Keywords: Bustard; Species distribution

Abstract Context Species distribution models (SDMs) may provide accurate predictions of species occurrence across space and time, being critical for effective conservation planning. Objectives Focusing on the little bustard ( Tetrax tetrax ), an endangered grassland bird, we aimed to: (i) characterise drivers along its key phenological phases (winter, breeding, post-breeding); (ii) quantify spatio-temporal variation in habitat suitability over years 2005–2021. Methods Combining remotely sensed metrics at high temporal resolution (MODIS) with long-term (> 12 years) GPS telemetry data collected 91 individuals one species’ main strongholds within Iberian Peninsula, built SDMs (250 m resolution) phases. Results The use both dynamic static predictors unveiled previously unknown ecological responses by bustards, revealing a marked change spatial suitable among Long-term trends showed considerable fluctuations, mainly breeding post-breeding Overall, SDM projections into past revealed that while winter habitats apparently increased since 2005, during most phase, reduced area time. Conclusions Our findings show matching tracking results throughout yearly cycle. Additionally, our stress importance quantifying loss potential impact decline nearly 20 years. Spatio-temporal variations are also identified this work, which can help prioritize areas, particularly areas have remained stable as is requirement lek system.