Prediction of the shift of the distribution of Pinus brutia Ten. Under future climate model

• DOI: 10.1007/s11056-025-10092-y
• Publication Date: 2025-01-24T09:02:26Z
• Authors: E. Seda Arslan; Ömer K. Örücü; Süleyman Gülcü; Samet Dirlik; Ecem Hoşgör
• Keywords: Pinus brutia

Abstract This study uses presence data and bioclimatic variables to predict distribution areas of the Pinus brutia Ten., the pine species with the most significant natural distribution in Turkey. The modeling was performed using the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios based on the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model, both current and future distributions. In addition, change analysis was conducted to determine the changes that will occur over the years in the potential distribution areas of the species. In addition to bioclimatic variables, the model incorporated elevation, NDVI, human footprint, slope, and aspect as environmental layers. The model’s performance was evaluated to determine its effectiveness, and the values in the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were analyzed. A Jackknife test was conducted to assess the contribution of each variable included in the study to the model’s performance. The study found that, the SSP2-4.5 scenario shows a slight increase in suitable areas over time, with “not suitable > suitable” regions increasing from 8.91 to 9.11%, while the SSP5-8.5 scenario indicates a net gain of suitable areas by 1.07% despite a 1.94% increase in unsuitable areas from 2081 to 2100. Consequently, Red Pine might experience less competition and have better expansion opportunities.