Spectral analysis of climate cycles to predict rainfall induced landslides in the western Mediterranean (Majorca, Spain)

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3003-3
• Publication Date: 2017-08-08T18:54:12Z
• Authors: Juan Antonio Luqu...; Rosa María Mateos; Inmaculada García...; Eulogio Pardo-Igú...; Gerardo Herrera
• Keywords: Natural hazard; Water cycle

ignal detection as local and exceptional influences are eliminated. Simulations have been performed for each rainfall/gauging station, using the most significant climate cycles obtained by means of the power spectrum. A good correlation between rainfall/flow values and simulated cycles has been obtained. The NAO and ENSO cycles are the most influential in the rainy periods, and specifically the NAO cycle, where a good correlation between episodes of high rainfall/flow and high values of ANAOI can be observed. At a second stage, landslides dated and recorded in the Tramuntana Range since 1954 (174 events) have been correlated with the simulated cycles obtaining good results, as the landslide events match rainfall peaks well. The correlation for the past decade (since 2005), when a detailed landslide inventory is available, also reveals a coincidence between landslide events and climate cycles, and specifically NAO and ENSO cycles. That is the case of the period 2008–2010, when numerous mass movements took place, and when the largest movement of the inventory was recorded. Results show a potential rainy period in the Tramuntana Range for the coming years (with maximum values around year 2021), when conditions similar to those related to the 2008–2010 event could take place again. The methodology presented in this work can contribute to the prediction of temporal, extreme hydrological events in order to design short-/medium-term mitigation strategies on a regional scale.<br/>Unidad de Granada, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, España<br/>Acceso electrónico sólo desde el IGME<br/>Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, España<br/>