Evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating extreme precipitation and its projected changes in global climate regions

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06850-4
• Publication Date: 2024-08-20T12:02:22Z
• Authors: Binglin Zhang; Songbai Song; Huimin Wang; Tianli Guo; Yibo Ding
• Keywords: Natural hazard

Extreme precipitation events usually lead to economic, agricultural, and social losses globally. The bias of different global circulation models (GCMs) is a major challenge in the projection extreme climate regions. Revealing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) GCMs helpful for providing reference predicting understanding performance CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs. Eight indices were used describe based on daily data retrieved from Global Precipitation Climatology (GPCP) 19 CMIP6 Six evaluation metrics adopted assess ability CMIP6-determined precipitation. results showed that half overestimated Sahara, Arabian Peninsula, Central Asia, underestimated northern North America Asia. In general, multimodel ensemble (MME) achieved greater simulating than did individual considered was relatively small tropical regions, especially equatorial future, will increase, under high emission scenarios (i.e., SSP5-8.5). notably increase cold polar Our could improve simulations, they are very important reliable future predictions.