Threshold dynamics for a HFMD epidemic model with periodic transmission rate

• DOI: 10.1007/s11071-010-9848-6
• Publication Date: 2010-09-30T17:04:15Z
• Authors: Junli Liu
• Keywords: 0101 mathematics; 01 natural sciences

In this paper, a periodic epidemic model is proposed in order to simulate the dynamics of HFMD transmission. We consider the effects of quarantine in the children population. We obtain a threshold value which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of the disease. Our results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the threshold value is less than unity. Otherwise, the system has a positive periodic solution and the disease persists. Numerical simulations show that quarantine has a positive impact on the spread of disease, i.e., quarantine is beneficial to the intervention and control of the disease outbreak in the children population.