Running for office again: evidence from Portuguese municipal elections

• DOI: 10.1007/s11127-012-9922-3
• Publication Date: 2012-02-14T16:32:58Z
• Authors: Vítor Castro; Rodrigo Martins
• Keywords: Economic conditions; Local elections; Mayor; 0502 economics and business; 05 social sciences; 8. Economic growth; Probit model; Reelection

Using a data set that covers all Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1979–2005, this study performs an empirical analysis of the economic determinants of mayors’ decisions to run for another term in office. The literature on the subject is mainly centered on the United States and, as far as we know, there are no papers addressing the economic factors influencing those choices. Probit panel estimations show that local economic conditions matter more than the national or regional economic environment. The results also confirm that political variables are important and that they influence the likelihood of seeking reelection in much the same way as they affect vote and popularity functions.