An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment

• DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0367-3
• Publication Date: 2013-05-29T07:45:36Z
• Authors: Gabriele Dono; Raffaele Cortignani; Luca Doro; Luca Giraldo; Luigi Ledda; Massimiliano Pasqui; Pier Paolo Roggero
• Keywords: 2. Zero hunger; Discrete stochastic programming; Water availability; Economic impact of climate change; Global warming; Q54 - Climate; 15. Life on land; Agriculture and environment; 01 natural sciences; Net evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements; 6. Clean water; Discrete stochastic programming; Climate change variability; Adaptation to climate change; Net evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements; Water availability; EPIC crops model; Economic impact of climate change; 13. Climate action; Climate change variability; EPIC crops model; Q15 - Irrigation; Adaptation to climate change; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ETN), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ETN may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy.