Modeling COVID-19 effects on SDGs using system dynamics in Egypt

• DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-20019-1
• Publication Date: 2022-04-05T20:02:20Z
• Authors: Mohamed Marzouk; Shimaa Azab; Nehal Elshaboury; Alaa Megahed; Mahmoud Metawie; Mostafa El Hawary; Doaa Ghaith; AbdElMoniem Bayoumi
• Keywords: Leverage (statistics); Pandemic

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant threat to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To address this challenge, thorough examination of pandemic's influence on four SDGs in Egypt is presented system dynamic model. addressed goals are related no poverty (SDG 1), zero hunger 2), decent work and economic growth 8), climate action 13). model simulated over 35 years extending from 2015 2050. Furthermore, web-based interactive learning environment developed analyze interdependencies among public health activities study impacts possible intervention countermeasures or prevention policies. Indicators including line, food insecurity, gross domestic product (GDP) rate, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions evaluated track Egypt's performance relation 1, 2, 8, 13. According simulation model, line will continue decline until it reaches around 16% by governmental efforts follow its vision 2030, can achieve decreasing percentage reaching 3% decrease full sufficiency GDP rate rise every year 13.71% With respect climate, GHG predicted fall roughly 97 Mt CO2-equivalents This approach revitalizes debates about achievement amid crisis acts as powerful tool that aids decision-makers identifying leverage points avoid long-term negative repercussions economy, people, environment.