Land use dynamics and their impact on hydrology and water quality of a river catchment: a comprehensive analysis and future scenario

• DOI: 10.1007/s11356-025-35946-y
• Publication Date: 2025-01-25T14:22:20Z
• Authors: Natnael Shiferaw; Lulit Habte; Mirza Waleed
• Keywords: Water balance; Watershed Management

Abstract Land use changes profoundly affect hydrological processes and water quality at various scales, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of sustainable resource management. This paper investigates the implications land alterations in Gap-Cheon watershed, analyzing data from 2012 2022 predicting up to 2052 using Future Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The study employs Hydrological Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model assess quantity dynamics. Seven classes were identified, their evolution was examined, revealing significant shifts urban, agricultural, grassland, wetland, forested areas. performance across observed evaluated coefficient determination ( R 2 ), percent bias (PBAIS), mean absolute error (MAE). Results show dynamic nature changes, highlighting urbanization, agriculture, Notably, explores consequences these on quality, scrutinizing surface runoff, evapotranspiration, stream flow, nutrient loads. Urban green spaces emerge as key mitigators, regulating runoff enhancing absorption. Forests (vegetation) also play crucial role maintaining balance, while wetlands act natural filters for flood mitigation improvement. findings underscore importance informed planning, recognizing urban spaces, forests, integral components watershed As society navigates environmental challenges, this research contributes deeper complex interactions between human activities environment emphasizing need nature-based solutions planning resilient balanced ecosystems.