Analysis of long-term trends and 15-year predictions of smoking-related bladder cancer burden in china across different age and sex groups from 1990 to 2021

• DOI: 10.1007/s12672-025-02157-3
• Publication Date: 2025-03-30T03:49:44Z
• Authors: Jieming Zuo; Junhao Chen; Zhiyong Tan; Xingcheng Zhu; Haifeng Wang; Shi Fu; Jiansong Wang

Tobacco is a significant risk factor for bladder cancer, with notable disparities in smoking rates and cancer prevalence between sex. Our objective to assess the sex- age-specific burden of attributable China from 1990 2021, predict its future trends over next 15 years using GBD study data. All data were extracted 2021 study, utilizing metrics such as mortality rates, disability-adjusted life (DALYs), age-standardized (ASMR), DALY (ASDR) describe smoking-attributable China. We employed joinpoint age-period-cohort (APC) analysis methods elucidate epidemiological characteristics cancer. Frontier was used visually demonstrate potential reduction based on development level each country or region. applied ARIMA model fit years. From number deaths DALYs due significantly increased. However, ASMR ASDR decreased both sexs but males experiencing higher burden. Population aging drove decline ASDR, despite rising absolute DALYs. Joinpoint regression yielded average annual percentage changes (AAPC) - 1.23 1.38 rate change being lower than females. The impact age, period, cohort varied. There slight increase relative health inequality among countries different income levels. By 2036, smoking-related are expected continue decreasing, this trend more pronounced males. Over past three decades, has increased across age groups, while have shown declining trend, reflecting certain public progress. This especially evident primarily driven by population demographic effects. levels slightly projected particularly Therefore, precise prevention intervention strategies targeting groups essential further alleviate