Quantitative study on natural gas production risk of Carboniferous gas reservoir in eastern Sichuan

• DOI: 10.1007/s13202-021-01261-8
• Publication Date: 2021-08-25T07:03:37Z
• Authors: Guo Yu; Haitao Li; Yanru Chen; Linqing Liu; Chenyu Wang; Yu Chen; Dongming Zhang
• Keywords: Realization (probability)

Abstract Quantifying natural gas production risk can help guide exploration and development in Carboniferous reservoirs. In this study, the Monte Carlo probability method is used to obtain distribution growth curve of each factor a reservoir eastern Sichuan. addition, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation conduct sensitivity analysis factors, realization under different factors are obtained. The research results show that: (1) factor–production calculated by method. average annual stable stage probabilities maximum range $$\left( {43.43 - 126.35} \right) \times 10^{8} {\text{m}}^{3} /{\text{year}}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mfenced> <mml:mn>43.43</mml:mn> <mml:mo>-</mml:mo> <mml:mn>126.35</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:mfenced> <mml:mo>×</mml:mo> <mml:msup> <mml:mn>10</mml:mn> <mml:mn>8</mml:mn> </mml:msup> <mml:mtext>m</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>3</mml:mn> <mml:mo>/</mml:mo> <mml:mtext>year</mml:mtext> </mml:math> , 14.59–92.88%. (2) significantly affected interval. entire interval, more sensitive kilometer-deep well (D) rate (A). During gas, these two be adjusted increase production.