Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

• DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0321-2
• Publication Date: 2012-08-27T12:42:54Z
• Authors: Thomas Neumann; Kari Eilola; Bo Gustafsson; Bärbel Müller-Kar...; Ivan Kuznetsov; H. E. Markus Meier; Oleg P. Savchuk
• Keywords: Baltic States; Climate Change; Oceans and Seas; Temperature; Eutrophication; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences; 6. Clean water; Oxygen; 13. Climate action; 14. Life underwater; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.