Development of a prototype tool for ballast water risk management using a combination of hydrodynamic models and agent-based modeling

• DOI: 10.1007/s13437-014-0067-8
• Publication Date: 2014-08-13T14:22:32Z
• Authors: Flemming T. Hansen; Michael Potthoff; Thomas Uhrenholdt; Hong D. Vo; Olof Linden; Jesper H. Andersen
• Keywords: 690; 0106 biological sciences; Monitoring; ABM Lab; WFD; ECO Lab; Human Factors and Ergonomics; Transportation; 01 natural sciences; invasive species; individually-based modelling; Water Framework Directive; 0502 economics and business; ballast water; 14. Life underwater; non-indigenous species; Policy and Law; 05 social sciences; risk assessment; 15. Life on land; 6. Clean water; Management; ecological connectivity; agent-based moddelling; 13. Climate action; MIKE 3; Safety Research

AbstractWe report the development of a prototype tool for modeling the risks of spreading of non-indigenous invasive species via ballast water. The tool constitutes of two types of models: a 3D hydrodynamical model calculates the currents in the North Sea and Danish Straits, and an agent-based model estimates the dispersal of selected model organisms with the prevailing currents calculated by the 3D hydrodynamical model. The analysis is concluded by a postprocessing activity, where scenarios of dispersal are combined into an interim estimate of connectivity within the study area. The latter can be used for assessment of potential risk associated with intentional or unintentional discharges of ballast water. We discuss how this prototype tool can be used for ballast water risk management and outline other functions and uses, e.g., in regard to ecosystem-based management and the implementation of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive.