Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns

• DOI: 10.1007/s40121-024-00965-8
• Publication Date: 2024-04-25T10:01:40Z
• Authors: Diana Mendes; Sheeja Machira Kr...; Esmé O’Brien; Thomas Padgett; Cale Harrison; W. David Strain; Andrea Manca; Andrew Ustianowski; Rebecca Butfield; Elizabeth Hamson; Charlie Reynard; Jingyan Yang
• Keywords: Booster (rocketry); Booster dose

The delivery of COVID-19 vaccines was successful in reducing hospitalizations and mortality. However, emergence the Omicron variant resulted increased virus transmissibility. Consequently, booster vaccination programs were initiated to decrease risk severe disease death among vulnerable members population. This study aimed estimate effects program alternative strategies on morbidity mortality due UK. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model used assess impact several outcomes associated with COVID-19, including hospitalizations, mortality, National Health Service (NHS) capacity quantified by hospital general ward intensive care unit (ICU) bed days, patient productivity. accounted for age-, risk- immunity-based stratification UK Outcomes evaluated over a 48-week time horizon from September 2022 August 2023 considering actual autumn 2022/spring campaigns six counterfactual strategies. estimated that campaign reduction 18,921 1463 deaths, compared no scenario. Utilization days decreased after campaign. Expanding eligibility criteria improving uptake improved all outcomes, averting twice as many ICU admissions, preventing more than 20% additional sevenfold long COVID, number productive lost reduced fivefold indicating vaccinating wider population has beneficial morbidities COVID-19. Our modelling demonstrates COVID-19-associated Booster warrant consideration UK, given their potential further reduce future variants emerge.