Transport demand evolution in Europe – factors of change, scenarios and challenges

• DOI: 10.1007/s40309-015-0072-y
• Publication Date: 2015-11-18T00:11:41Z
• Authors: J. Bernardino; A. Aggelakakis; M. Reichenbach; J. Vieira; M. Boile; J. Schippl; P. Christidis; A. Papanikolaou; A. Condeco; H. Garcia; M. Krail
• Keywords: Scarcity; Scenario analysis

In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how future may look like in very term. The work presented this paper is scenario analysis focusing on evolution of demand towards 2050, aiming identify related challenges for European industrial policy players. It follows up other recent attempts study from integrating findings these studies, updating new trends applying specific methodology relying also expert consultation. diversity scenarios created unfolds aspects system rather different outcomes issues volume transport, travel motives, prevalent spatial scales logistics, people's preferences attributes, relevancy State versus private initiative production, level competition, or relative importance environment resource scarcity setting an agenda innovation regulations. Beyond subsequent opportunities identified work, developed be useful basis individual actors distinct backgrounds build their own futures, supporting them defining strategies future.