Predictive model of length of stay in hospital among older patients

• DOI: 10.1007/s40520-018-1033-7
• Publication Date: 2018-09-06T10:48:05Z
• Authors: Radcliffe Lisk; Mahir Uddin; Anita Parbhoo; Keefai Yeong; David Fluck; Pankaj Sharma; Michael E. J. Lean; Thang S. Han
• Keywords: Hip Fracture

Most National Health Service (NHS) hospital bed occupants are older patients because of their frequent admissions and prolonged length stay (LOS). We evaluated demographic clinical factors as predictors LOS in a single NHS Trust derived an equation to estimate LOS.Stepwise logistic linear regressions were used predict (upper-quintile > 17 days) respectively, from acute pre-existing conditions.Of 374 (men:women = 127:247) admitted (20% orthogeriatric, 69% general medical 11% surgical wards), median age 85 years (IQR 78-90), 77 had first hip fracture; 297 previous fracture (median time since 2.4 years) 21 (7.1%) recurrent fracture, with years. Median was 6.5 days 1.8-14.8), 38 (10.2%) died after 4.8 1.6-14.3). Prolonged associated discharge places other than usual residence: OR 3.1 (95% CI 1.7-5.7), stroke: 10.1 (3.7-26.7), fractures: 6.8 (3.1-14.8), 9.5 (3.2-28.7), urinary tract infection/pneumonia: 4.0 (2.1-8.0), 9.8 (3.0-32.3) malignancy: 15.0 (3.1-71.8). Predictive showed estimated 11.6 for residence, 15 or stroke, 9-14 fractures, infections, fractures malignancy; these together explained 32% variability LOS.A useful outcome can be made by constructing predictive information on admission, provide evidence-based guidance resource requirements planning.