Climate and Hazardous Convective Weather

• DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6
• Publication Date: 2015-02-27T02:46:32Z
• Authors: Michael K. Tippett; John T. Allen; Vittorio A. Gensini; Harold E. Brooks
• Keywords: Convective storm detection

Substantial progress has been made recently relating the large-scale climate system and hazardous convective weather (HCW; tornadoes, hail, damaging wind), particularly over USA where there are large societal impacts a long observational record. Despite data limitations, HCW shown to be influenced by tropical atmosphere via Madden-Julian Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Analysis of atmospheric environments favorable (e.g., available potential energy vertical wind shear) avoids model limitations. While few robust trends seen recent decades, future projections indicate increased frequency such USA, Europe, Australia, suggesting activity. A increase in year-to-year variability US tornado occurrence is striking, but not yet understood. Dynamical downscaling convection-permitting resolutions promises improved understanding relationships between occurrence.