Uncovering the internal structure of Boko Haram through its mobility patterns

• DOI: 10.1007/s41109-020-00264-4
• Publication Date: 2020-06-16T12:02:35Z
• Authors: Rafael Prieto Curiel; Olivier Walther; Neave O’Clery
• Keywords: Boko haram; Fragmentation

Abstract Boko Haram has caused nearly 40,000 casualties in Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad, becoming one of the deadliest Jihadist organisations recent history. At its current rate, takes part more than two events each day, taking lives 11 people daily. Yet, little is known concerning Haram’s internal structure, organisation, mobility. Here, we propose a novel technique to uncover structure based on sequence which terrorist group part. Data from Armed Conflict Location & Event Project (ACLED) gives location time 3,800 been involved since organisation became violent 10 years ago. Using this dataset, build an algorithm detect fragmentation into multiple cells, assuming that travel costs reduced familiarity with unknown locations limit mobility individual cells. Our results suggest very high level consists at least 50–60 separate methodology enables us periods during exhibits exceptionally levels fragmentation, identify number key routes frequently travelled by cells where military interventions could be concentrated.