Assessing the Increasing Frequency of Heat Waves in Cuba and Contributing Mechanisms

• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-024-00443-8
• Publication Date: 2024-08-23T23:05:41Z
• Authors: Albenis Pérez-Ala...; Rogert Sorí; Milica Stojanovic; Marta Vázquez; Ricardo M. Trigo; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno
• Keywords: Heat wave; Intensity; Wet season; Heat index

Abstract This study presents the first climatological analysis of heat waves in Cuba from 1951 to 2023. Here we define a wave as period at least three consecutive days which daily maximum and minimum temperatures exceed their respective calendar-day 99th percentile. Our detected total number 393 (∼ 5.4 events per year over regions (western, central eastern) during period, distributed ∼ 3.1 dry season (from November April) 2.3 rainy May October). The highest frequency was recorded western region Cuba, albeit eastern is hottest one. life cycle revealed that they are relatively short-lived, with mean duration 4.9 5.3 seasons, respectively. Furthermore, found statistically significant ( p < 0.05) upward trend frequency, intensity, spatial extent annual under such hot extremes. Lagrangian predominantly local origin sensible heating, followed by advected upwind sources throughout easterly winds. An assessment main physical mechanisms associated these that, general, extremes were exacerbated soil moisture deficit, high-pressure conditions clear skies increased solar radiation. Based on Heat Wave Magnitude Index, also presented top 10 Cuban waves, mainly occurred last decade, confirming intensity extreme events. Overall, this provides insights into contributes development physically plausible storylines help decision-makers implementing mitigation adaptation strategies context global warming.